SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 73.38%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 10.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 3-0 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.16%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-2 (3.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
73.38% ( -0.14) | 15.66% ( 0.2) | 10.96% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 55.1% ( -1.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.68% ( -1.27) | 32.32% ( 1.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.06% ( -1.49) | 53.93% ( 1.49) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.43% ( -0.33) | 7.57% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.88% ( -0.84) | 27.11% ( 0.84) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.61% ( -1.03) | 40.39% ( 1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.99% ( -0.94) | 77% ( 0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2-0 @ 10.18% ( 0.35) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 8.76% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.07)1-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.4)4-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.14)5-0 @ 2.92% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.13)6-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.04)5-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.09)6-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.51% Total : 73.38% | 1-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.21)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.18% Total : 15.66% | 1-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.44% Total : 10.96% |
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