SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 49.8%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.17%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Manchester City |
26.55% ( 0.28) | 23.65% ( 0.02) | 49.8% ( -0.29) |
| Both teams to score 57.68% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.33% ( 0.16) | 43.67% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.94% ( 0.15) | 66.06% ( -0.15) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.04% ( 0.3) | 29.96% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.93% ( 0.35) | 66.07% ( -0.34) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.36% ( -0.05) | 17.64% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.76% ( -0.08) | 48.25% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.37% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.14% Total : 26.55% | 1-1 @ 11.05% 2-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.29% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.65% | 1-2 @ 9.59% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 7.96% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 5.55% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.6% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 2.41% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.45% ( 0)Other @ 3.75% Total : 49.8% |
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