SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.99%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 28.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.35%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
28.64% ( -0.24) | 24.38% ( 0.04) | 46.99% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 56.89% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.53% ( -0.32) | 45.47% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.2% ( -0.31) | 67.81% ( 0.31) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.64% ( -0.33) | 29.36% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.66% ( -0.41) | 65.34% ( 0.42) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.54% ( -0.04) | 19.46% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.69% ( -0.07) | 51.31% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.35% Total : 28.64% | 1-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.38% | 1-2 @ 9.38% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 7.65% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 5.12% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.18% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.71% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.08% Total : 46.99% |
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