Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 86.45%. A draw had a probability of 9.5% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 4.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12%) and 4-0 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.49%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (1.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
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