SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 56.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 21.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-0 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Porto |
21.19% ( -0.1) | 22.5% ( -0.01) | 56.3% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 55.17% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.96% ( -0.09) | 44.04% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.58% ( -0.09) | 66.42% ( 0.09) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.26% ( -0.15) | 34.74% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.53% ( -0.16) | 71.47% ( 0.16) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.54% ( 0) | 15.46% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.68% ( 0.01) | 44.32% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 5.68% 2-1 @ 5.6% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 21.19% | 1-1 @ 10.6% 0-0 @ 5.37% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.5% | 0-1 @ 10.02% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.9% ( 0)0-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 6.16% ( 0)0-3 @ 5.83% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.26% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.88% ( 0)0-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.52% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.07% 0-5 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 2.58% Total : 56.29% |
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