We expect Shakhtar to push their opponents all of the way in Warsaw on Wednesday, but game state could play a large part in terms of dictating which direction that the result heads in.
Providing that Leipzig can avoid falling behind early on, gaps should open up as the Ukrainian Premier League runners-up push for a winner, with the likes of Timo Werner and Christopher Nkunku perfectly placed to punish them in transition should that be the case.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 27.37% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.75%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
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