SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 64.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 16.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 1-0 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Bayer Leverkusen win it was 1-2 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
64.6% ( 0.31) | 19.11% ( -0.11) | 16.28% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 57.77% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.75% ( 0.11) | 36.25% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.63% ( 0.12) | 58.37% ( -0.12) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.41% ( 0.11) | 10.58% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.64% ( 0.25) | 34.35% ( -0.25) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.62% ( -0.18) | 35.38% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.86% ( -0.18) | 72.14% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 4.12% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.78% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.87% Total : 64.6% | 1-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.74% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 19.11% | 1-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.49% Total : 16.28% |
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