Back-to-back league defeats to sides whom they would have expected to beat is not a recipe for success for Villarreal ahead of the visit of Bayern, but they normally prove to be a tough nut to crack at home.
However, playing on rival turf in the Champions League has not phased Bayern for several years now, and we can only picture Nagelsmann's free-scoring crop claiming a healthy first-leg advantage.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 49.5%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.56%) and 0-2 (8.27%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-0 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
