We made the mistake of underestimating Villarreal before the first leg, and an entire XI of fresh legs can certainly trouble this Bayern backline - especially given their track record of away goals in the Champions League this term. While Emery's side could and probably should have scored more in the first leg, Bayern were also guilty of some profligacy on the night - which should not be the case at the Allianz Arena - and attempting to make lightning strike twice in Bavaria will likely be a step too far for this spirited Villarreal side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 61.57%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 16.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.02%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.

Result
Bayern Munich	Draw	Villarreal
61.57%	22.41%	16.03%

Both teams to score 46.27%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.78%

51.22%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.94%

73.06%

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.83%

16.17%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.37%

45.63%

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.19%

44.81%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.22%

80.78%

Score Analysis

Bayern Munich 61.56%

Villarreal 16.03%

Draw 22.4%

Bayern Munich	Draw	Villarreal
1-0 @ 13.2% 2-0 @ 12.02% 2-1 @ 9.66% 3-0 @ 7.31% 3-1 @ 5.86% 4-0 @ 3.33% 4-1 @ 2.67% 3-2 @ 2.35% 5-0 @ 1.21% 4-2 @ 1.07% 5-1 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.9% Total : 61.56%	1-1 @ 10.59% 0-0 @ 7.25% 2-2 @ 3.88% Other @ 0.69% Total : 22.4%	0-1 @ 5.82% 1-2 @ 4.25% 0-2 @ 2.33% 1-3 @ 1.14% 2-3 @ 1.04% Other @ 1.45% Total : 16.03%