We said: Barcelona 2-1 Villarreal
This is a bigger match for Villarreal than it is for Barcelona, with the visitors looking to finish seventh. Xavi's side will be keen to give their supporters something to cheer at the end of a difficult season, though, and we believe that the home team will have enough quality to secure all three points here.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 21.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.