Alaves will certainly be the fresher of the two teams, which could count for a lot, especially in the second period, as Villarreal put so much into their clash with Liverpool. Alaves need wins rather than draws at this stage of the season, but they might just settle for a point on Saturday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 52.38%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 23.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Villarreal
23.57%	24.04%	52.38%

Both teams to score 53.31%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.98%

48.02%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.81%

70.18%

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.25%

34.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.52%

71.48%

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.7%

18.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.62%

49.37%

Score Analysis

Alaves 23.57%

Villarreal 52.37%

Draw 24.04%

Alaves	Draw	Villarreal
1-0 @ 6.72% 2-1 @ 6.03% 2-0 @ 3.55% 3-1 @ 2.13% 3-2 @ 1.81% 3-0 @ 1.25% Other @ 2.09% Total : 23.57%	1-1 @ 11.41% 0-0 @ 6.36% 2-2 @ 5.12% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.04%	0-1 @ 10.79% 1-2 @ 9.69% 0-2 @ 9.17% 1-3 @ 5.49% 0-3 @ 5.19% 2-3 @ 2.9% 1-4 @ 2.33% 0-4 @ 2.21% 2-4 @ 1.23% Other @ 3.37% Total : 52.37%