Bristol City have won three of their last four matches at Ashton Gate, and we think that they will make full use of home advantage to take three points off a Derby side that have lost three of their previous four games in the Championship.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol City win with a probability of 57.13%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 18.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.69%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bristol City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Bristol City.
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