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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Portsmouth had a probability of 23.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Portsmouth win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Portsmouth |
52.17% ( 0.22) | 24.63% ( -0.09) | 23.19% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 51.04% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.2% ( 0.22) | 50.8% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.31% ( 0.2) | 72.69% ( -0.2) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.55% ( 0.17) | 19.45% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.71% ( 0.28) | 51.29% ( -0.28) |
| Portsmouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.36% ( 0) | 36.63% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.58% ( 0) | 73.42% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Portsmouth |
| 1-0 @ 11.66% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 5.21% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.13% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.94% Total : 52.17% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.12% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.98% Total : 24.63% | 0-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.59% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.61% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.78% Total : 23.19% |
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