It will certainly be a nervous afternoon at Kenilworth Road, but we expect Luton to get the job done and secure an all-important victory. The Hatters have been strong at home all season and Reading have shown in their last two games that there is little motivation in the squad now that they are assured of safety.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 56.72%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 19.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Luton Town in this match.
