SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 43.9%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 30.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Millwall would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Millwall | Draw | Swansea City |
43.9% ( 0.05) | 25.57% ( -0.03) | 30.53% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.07% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.32% ( 0.14) | 49.68% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.31% ( 0.12) | 71.69% ( -0.12) |
| Millwall Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.44% ( 0.08) | 22.56% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.84% ( 0.12) | 56.16% ( -0.12) |
| Swansea City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.83% ( 0.06) | 30.17% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.68% ( 0.07) | 66.32% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Millwall | Draw | Swansea City |
| 1-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.55% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.49% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.74% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.19% Total : 43.89% | 1-1 @ 12.14% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.81% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.57% | 0-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.28% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0)Other @ 3.18% Total : 30.53% |
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