In most circumstances, Burnley are going to be backed to prevail in any Championship fixture. However, three days on from a testing visit to Luton and with a motivated Millwall in front of them, we can see a low-scoring share of the spoils being played out at The Den.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Burnley win was 0-1 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.5) 
-0.67) 
