SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for Watford had a probability of 33.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (10.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Watford | Draw | Luton Town |
33.67% ( 0.17) | 27.48% ( -0.09) | 38.85% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 49.17% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.56% ( 0.37) | 56.45% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.55% ( 0.3) | 77.45% ( -0.3) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.54% ( 0.3) | 31.46% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.16% ( 0.35) | 67.84% ( -0.34) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.74% ( 0.13) | 28.26% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.03% ( 0.17) | 63.97% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Watford | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.28% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.92% Total : 33.67% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.13)2-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.47% | 0-1 @ 11.23% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.46% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 1.82% Total : 38.85% |
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