SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Changchun Yatai win with a probability of 58.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Shenzhen had a probability of 17.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Changchun Yatai win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Shenzhen win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Changchun Yatai would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Shenzhen |
58.2% ( 0.78) | 23.94% ( -0.5) | 17.87% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 45.43% ( 0.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.73% ( 1.45) | 54.27% ( -1.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.34% ( 1.2) | 75.66% ( -1.2) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.55% ( 0.85) | 18.45% ( -0.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.36% ( 1.41) | 49.64% ( -1.41) |
| Shenzhen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.71% ( 0.52) | 44.28% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.64% ( 0.42) | 80.35% ( -0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Changchun Yatai | Draw | Shenzhen |
| 1-0 @ 13.81% ( -0.41) 2-0 @ 11.66% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 5.35% ( 0.2)4-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.11)5-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.2% Total : 58.19% | 1-1 @ 11.24% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 8.17% ( -0.47)2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.65% Total : 23.93% | 0-1 @ 6.66% ( -0.29) 1-2 @ 4.58% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.62% Total : 17.87% |
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