SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 43.02%. A win for Henan Songshan Longmen had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Henan Songshan Longmen win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Henan Songshan Longmen |
43.02% ( 0.29) | 26.82% ( -0.03) | 30.16% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 50.02% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.16% ( 0) | 54.84% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.86% ( 0) | 76.14% ( -0) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.74% ( 0.15) | 25.26% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.98% ( 0.21) | 60.01% ( -0.21) |
| Henan Songshan Longmen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.92% ( -0.19) | 33.08% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.32% ( -0.22) | 69.67% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Henan Songshan Longmen |
| 1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.01% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.38% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.37% Total : 43.01% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.36% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.84% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.81% | 0-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 7.04% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.51% Total : 30.16% |
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