Beijing boast a very good record in this fixture, and they will back themselves to get the job done on Sunday. However, Tianjin are playing with real belief at the moment, so we are backing a share of the spoils here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win was 1-0 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
-0.56) 
0.07) 
