Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 47.69%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 26.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
0.31) 
-0.47) 
