Both sides are expected to be assertive in this game, but Athletico's superior technical quality and home form should give them the edge over Alianza. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 74.07%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Alianza Lima had a probability of 8.53%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.91%) and 3-0 (10.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.06%), while for an Alianza Lima win it was 0-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Alianza Lima
74.07% ( 0.16)	17.4% ( -0.08)	8.53% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 38.94% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.74% (

0.13)

48.26% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.59% (

0.12)

70.41% (

-0.12)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.54% (

0.08)

11.46% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.7% (

0.18)

36.3% (

-0.17)

Alianza Lima Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

43.98% (

-0.08)

56.02% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.52% (

-0.04)

88.48% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Athletico Paranaense 74.06%

Alianza Lima 8.53%

Draw 17.4%

Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Alianza Lima
2-0 @ 15.06% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 13.91% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.41% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.55% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) 6-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.13% Total : 74.06%	1-1 @ 8.06% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.38% Total : 17.4%	0-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.4% Total : 8.53%