Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metropolitanos win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metropolitanos win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.74%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
