SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Metropolitanos win was 1-0 (11.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Metropolitanos | Draw | Nacional |
31.81% ( -0.35) | 29.44% ( 0.41) | 38.74% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 43.23% ( -1.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.38% ( -1.41) | 63.61% ( 1.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.09% ( -1.02) | 82.91% ( 1.02) |
| Metropolitanos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.46% ( -1.02) | 36.54% ( 1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.67% ( -1.04) | 73.33% ( 1.04) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.12% ( -0.76) | 31.88% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.68% ( -0.88) | 68.32% ( 0.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Metropolitanos | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 11.72% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.16)2-0 @ 5.9% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.27% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.89% Total : 31.81% | 1-1 @ 13.4% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 11.64% ( 0.59)2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.43% | 0-1 @ 13.31% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 7.61% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.86% Total : 38.74% |
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