Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 58.07%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Union La Calera had a probability of 19.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Union La Calera win it was 0-1 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.