SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 53.14%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 20.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | River Plate |
53.14% ( 0.41) | 25.98% ( -0.15) | 20.89% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 44.45% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.97% ( 0.27) | 58.04% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.29% ( 0.22) | 78.72% ( -0.21) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.05% ( 0.29) | 21.95% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.77% ( 0.43) | 55.23% ( -0.43) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.96% ( -0.11) | 43.04% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.67% ( -0.09) | 79.33% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 14.32% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.63% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.88% Total : 53.13% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 9.45% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0)Other @ 0.59% Total : 25.97% | 0-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.02% Total : 20.89% |
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