SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monagas win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monagas win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monagas would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Monagas | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
37.17% ( -0.42) | 26.43% ( -0.04) | 36.39% ( 0.46) |
| Both teams to score 52.77% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.97% ( 0.2) | 52.03% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.24% ( 0.18) | 73.76% ( -0.18) |
| Monagas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.87% ( -0.14) | 27.13% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.48% ( -0.19) | 62.52% ( 0.18) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.42% ( 0.37) | 27.58% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.89% ( 0.48) | 63.11% ( -0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Monagas | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.77% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 0.9% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.14% Total : 37.17% | 1-1 @ 12.57% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.48% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.43% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 6.21% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.92% Total : 36.39% |
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