Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
