Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (6.37%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
