SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 45.58%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.86%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | River Plate |
29.1% ( 0.44) | 25.32% ( 0.29) | 45.58% ( -0.73) |
| Both teams to score 54.08% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.7% ( -0.99) | 49.3% ( 0.99) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.65% ( -0.9) | 71.35% ( 0.9) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.01% ( -0.19) | 30.99% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.7% ( -0.22) | 67.3% ( 0.22) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.37% ( -0.73) | 21.63% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.25% ( -1.14) | 54.74% ( 1.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.95% Total : 29.1% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.32% | 0-1 @ 10.26% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 9.21% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 7.86% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.7% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 1.54% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.41% Total : 45.58% |
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