Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 46.94%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
