SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 46.94%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | River Plate |
| 27.58% | 25.47% | 46.94% |
| Both teams to score 52.58% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.21% | 50.78% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.32% | 72.67% |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.1% | 32.9% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.52% | 69.48% |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.36% | 21.64% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.24% | 54.76% |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 7.91% 2-1 @ 6.73% 2-0 @ 4.4% 3-1 @ 2.5% 3-2 @ 1.91% 3-0 @ 1.63% Other @ 2.51% Total : 27.58% | 1-1 @ 12.11% 0-0 @ 7.12% 2-2 @ 5.15% 3-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 10.89% 1-2 @ 9.27% 0-2 @ 8.34% 1-3 @ 4.73% 0-3 @ 4.26% 2-3 @ 2.63% 1-4 @ 1.81% 0-4 @ 1.63% 2-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.37% Total : 46.93% |
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