SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 38.52%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 37.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.35%) and 0-2 (5.63%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| LDU Quito | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
37.36% ( -0.09) | 24.13% ( 0) | 38.52% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 61% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.52% ( -0) | 41.48% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.12% | 63.88% ( 0) |
| LDU Quito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.81% ( -0.05) | 22.19% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.4% ( -0.07) | 55.6% ( 0.07) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.39% ( 0.05) | 21.61% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.29% ( 0.07) | 54.71% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| LDU Quito | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 2-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.18% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.2% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.47% Total : 37.36% | 1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.38% 0-0 @ 4.8% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.13% | 1-2 @ 8.47% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.33% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.26% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.25% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 38.52% |
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