Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Aug 2, 2022 at 11.15pm UK

Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
0 - 1
Atletico GO

(Atletico Goianiense win 4-0 on aggregate)

Marichal (67')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Fernando (23')
Pereira (30'), Churin (42'), Baralhas (45+2'), Jorginho (76'), Hayner (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Nacional and Atletico Goianiense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Nacional 2-0 Atletico Goianiense

Nacional's form on their own turf heading into this one means that it is hard to envisage any other outcome than a home win. We are backing the hosts to cruise to a relatively comfortable victory and take a significant lead into the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.88%. A win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Atletico Goianiense win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Atletico Goianiense
48.88% ( -0.09)	23.91% ( 0.05)	27.21% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 57.36% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.64% (

-0.18)

44.35% (

0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.27% (

-0.17)

66.73% (

0.17)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.74% (

-0.1)

18.26% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.69% (

-0.17)

49.31% (

0.17)

Atletico Goianiense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.17% (

-0.06)

29.82% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.09% (

-0.08)

65.9% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Nacional 48.88%

Atletico Goianiense 27.21%

Draw 23.91%

Nacional	Draw	Atletico Goianiense
2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.4% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.46% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.51% Total : 48.88%	1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.76% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.45% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.91%	1-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( 0) Other @ 3.19% Total : 27.21%