Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 60.47%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 14.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.47%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Boston River win it was 0-1 (6.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.