With the deficit they are facing, Universidad have no choice but to take chances to try to claw their way back into this tie.
That should allow Sao Paulo to do what they did in the opener, catch the Chileans on the break, a tactic they executed to near perfection last Thursday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 61.79%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 13.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.04%) and 2-1 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.73%), while for a Universidad Catolica win it was 0-1 (6.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
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