Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 54.43%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.17%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Universidad Catolica win it was 1-0 (6.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
