Universidad Catolica might be heading into this match on the back of three victories, but in the group stage, they found things difficult and that could be the case again on Friday.
The visitors are a strong squad with plenty of confidence as one of the favourites to win the entire competition, and they should be able to secure a routine win here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.95%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.87%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.04) 
