Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 45.09%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 28.85% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Ternana win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lecce would win this match.
