Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crotone win with a probability of 42%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crotone win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
