Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 63.24%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Alessandria had a probability of 15.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for an Alessandria win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.
