SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 70.5%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 8.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (17.41%) and 3-0 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.12%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (4.74%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Senegal | Draw | Mozambique |
70.5% ( 0.07) | 21.24% ( -0) | 8.25% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 28.8% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.62% ( -0.12) | 62.37% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.98% ( -0.09) | 82.01% ( 0.09) |
| Senegal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.96% ( -0.02) | 17.04% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.81% ( -0.04) | 47.19% ( 0.04) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 34.71% ( -0.21) | 65.28% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 6.87% ( -0.09) | 93.12% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Senegal | Draw | Mozambique |
| 1-0 @ 19.68% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 17.41% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.61% ( 0)3-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 70.48% | 0-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.05) 1-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.24% | 0-1 @ 4.74% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 1.79% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.71% Total : 8.25% |
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