SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Mozambique had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.53%) and 2-1 (7.38%). The likeliest Mozambique win was 0-1 (12.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rwanda | Draw | Mozambique |
37.94% ( 0.17) | 30.11% ( 1.27) | 31.95% ( -1.44) |
| Both teams to score 41.56% ( -3.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.35% ( -4.25) | 65.65% ( 4.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.66% ( -3.05) | 84.34% ( 3.05) |
| Rwanda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.55% ( -2.09) | 33.44% ( 2.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.92% ( -2.36) | 70.07% ( 2.36) |
| Mozambique Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.44% ( -3.34) | 37.56% ( 3.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.66% ( -3.43) | 74.34% ( 3.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rwanda | Draw | Mozambique |
| 1-0 @ 13.75% ( 1.31) 2-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.32)2-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.36)3-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.3)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.29)Other @ 2.5% Total : 37.93% | 1-1 @ 13.47% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 12.56% ( 1.84)2-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.54)Other @ 0.46% Total : 30.1% | 0-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.8) 1-2 @ 6.6% ( -0.56)0-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.41)0-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.24)2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.31)Other @ 1.73% Total : 31.95% |
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