SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 80.13%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.09%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (2.2%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
80.13% ( 0.08) | 12.9% ( -0.05) | 6.97% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 47.55% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.37% ( 0.11) | 32.63% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.7% ( 0.13) | 54.3% ( -0.13) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.69% ( 0.04) | 6.32% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.24% ( 0.11) | 23.76% ( -0.1) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.75% ( 0) | 49.25% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.87% | 84.13% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-0 @ 11.86% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.74% ( 0)4-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 5.34% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.64% Total : 80.12% | 1-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.98% ( -0)Other @ 0.73% Total : 12.9% | 0-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 6.97% |
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