Werder Bremen were humbled by Leverkusen's dominance during their defeat last weekend, but things do not get much easier for them here with a trip to in-form Stuttgart. The hosts have already won two more matches than in each of the last two seasons.
We can envisage them earning a 10th victory in 13 matches by dispatching Werder Bremen on Saturday, but it may be closer than expected. Both sides are better offensively than defensively, so it should be an entertaining clash at MHPArena.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 59.71%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 19.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.69%) and 1-0 (8.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 1-2 (5.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
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