SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.29%) and 0-2 (5.47%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Bayern Munich |
35.2% ( 1.03) | 22.87% ( 0.48) | 41.93% ( -1.51) |
| Both teams to score 65.46% ( -1.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.46% ( -2.17) | 35.54% ( 2.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.41% ( -2.45) | 57.59% ( 2.44) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.4% ( -0.48) | 20.6% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.85% ( -0.77) | 53.14% ( 0.77) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.45% ( -1.48) | 17.55% ( 1.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.91% ( -2.63) | 48.08% ( 2.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Bayern Munich |
| 2-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.25) 1-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.53)2-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.35)3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.02% Total : 35.2% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.38)3-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.87% | 1-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.38)0-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 5.02% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 3.96% ( -0.27)0-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 2.18% ( -0.23)2-4 @ 1.72% ( -0.21)0-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.12)3-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.13)Other @ 3.17% Total : 41.93% |
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