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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 72.5%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 10.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.7%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.87%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 1-0 (3.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | Willem II |
10.83% ( -0.04) | 16.68% ( 0.54) | 72.5% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 50.51% ( -2.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.15% ( -2.82) | 37.85% ( 2.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.9% ( -3.08) | 60.1% ( 3.08) |
| MVV Maastricht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.57% ( -1.98) | 44.43% ( 1.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.53% ( -1.65) | 80.47% ( 1.65) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.89% ( -0.81) | 9.11% ( 0.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.05% ( -1.99) | 30.95% ( 1.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | Willem II |
| 1-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 3.19% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.11)Other @ 1.98% Total : 10.83% | 1-1 @ 7.87% ( 0.36) 0-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.53)2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.93% Total : 16.68% | 0-2 @ 11.61% ( 0.7) 0-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.93)1-2 @ 9.43% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 9.28% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 7.53% ( -0.23)0-4 @ 5.55% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 4.51% ( -0.32)2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.27)0-5 @ 2.66% ( -0.14)1-5 @ 2.16% ( -0.24)2-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.24)0-6 @ 1.06% ( -0.1)Other @ 4.13% Total : 72.49% |
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