Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 72.12%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 11.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 3-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.16%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.

Result
Willem II	Draw	Jong AZ
72.12% ( 0.02)	15.97% ( -0.04)	11.91% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 57.43% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.97% (

0.25)

31.03% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.57% (

0.29)

52.42% (

-0.29)

Willem II Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.48% (

0.07)

7.52% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.01% (

0.16)

26.99% (

-0.16)

Jong AZ Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.1% (

0.2)

37.89% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.33% (

0.19)

74.66% (

-0.19)

Score Analysis

Willem II 72.12%

Jong AZ 11.91%

Draw 15.97%

Willem II	Draw	Jong AZ
2-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 5.32% ( -0) 4-1 @ 5.16% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.8% Total : 72.12%	1-1 @ 7.16% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.22% Total : 15.97%	1-2 @ 3.47% ( 0) 0-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.34% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.75% Total : 11.91%