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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 74.25%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 11.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.55%) and 3-1 (8.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.26%), while for a Jong Ajax win it was 1-2 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Jong Ajax |
74.25% ( 0.15) | 14.65% ( -0.07) | 11.1% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 60.21% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.51% ( 0.13) | 26.49% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.16% ( 0.16) | 46.84% ( -0.15) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.92% ( 0.06) | 6.08% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.9% ( 0.15) | 23.1% ( -0.15) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.11% ( -0.04) | 35.89% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.33% ( -0.04) | 72.67% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Jong Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 6.11% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 4.19% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.21% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 4.26% Total : 74.25% | 1-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 2.18% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 14.65% | 1-2 @ 3.21% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 2.24% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.88% Total : 11.1% |
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