Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 45.9%. A win for Emmen had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Emmen win was 1-2 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.
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