Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PEC Zwolle win with a probability of 43.79%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a PEC Zwolle win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.17%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 2-1 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PEC Zwolle would win this match.
-0.2) 
0.06) 
